Sizing the Covid-19 problem, for real

Like many, I’ve been watching the extraordinary infinity-ring circus of Covid-19 with rising confusion.

Old amber-screen lettering showing *TILT* like on old pinball machines

I hate being that confused.

So, I thought about how to cut to the chase. I investigated mortality figures, looking for clarity on the competing narratives about the actual danger posed by Covid-19. (This is aside from the epidemiological information, which is hard work for me and possibly beyond a lot of people. Look into attack rate, latency, and lag if you want to know more about the reasons for its spreadability.)

This boils it down to one simple, definitive marker:

How many die? Because that’s the point.
Lead-grey statue of dark angels swooping down from the sky

Comparing mortality numbers

This is all out of a U.S. population (as of 2019) of 328,200,000.

Annual US death rates from various causes in 2019 (or 2018):

36,560 … Highway fatalities (2018.)
 5,250 … Fatal workplace injuries (2018.)
48,236 … Adverse medical events ending in death (including surgical problems, allergic responses, medical devices, prescription errors, and fatal drug overdoses.)☆
61,200 … Seasonal flu, 2018-2019 season.
15,820 … Those with HIV, of all known causes (2018.)
Fatalities due to Covid-19 in the US in 2020, only up to Sept 1:
About 180,000

Expected to exceed 200,000 in 2 more weeks.

🤯😱💔

Questioning the data

If this number were as low as 2X the nearest competitors, I’d have dug into the question of just how bad the Covid-19 reportage is.

(Hint: lots of problems, some pushing the numbers up, others pushing the numbers down.)

It’s nearly FOUR TIMES higher than the nearest causes of death. Even I can’t pick a big enough hole in that number to change the outlook!

Bottom line

This final figure is inescapably bigger — in only 8-9 months! — than any other major/relevant cause of mortality in an entire year in the U.S.

So… death by Covid-19 is a real problem. A huge problem.

It’s a real, huge, problem.

Please protect yourself & others: don’t share air or germs.

Self-protection skills

For my fellow chronics, don’t be too worried. Surviving this is a 3-part skill, and you’ve mastered much worse. You can do this.

1. Dilute your air. 🌀
2. Protect your airway. 😷
3. Wash wash wash. 👐

Here’s what that means:

1. 🌀 Get as much air as possible around you. Avoid recirculated air. Open windows in closed buildings. Dilute, dilute, dilute your air. Even a little! (Work within your constraints.)

2. 😷 Cover all your breathing apparatus with something that meets these practical criteria for masks that protect *you* as well as others:
A. Seals: doesn’t gust air out the edges and passes the “doesn’t fog glasses” test.
B. Protects: has enough material/filtration that you can’t see any light specks peeking through, when you hold it up to the light.
C. Doesn’t vent. (Apart from exposing others, venting can also create weird ripples for super-small viruses to ride back in on. Look up “Venturi effect”.)

After reading mask tests until my eyes bubbled, I agree with these guidelines. Plus, no codes to remember!

3. 👐 Wash, wash, wash your paws & whatever you touch or touch with. Alcohol will do in between times.

Dealing with questionable cleaners

After two painful toxic exposures, I learned that 40 proof in a spritz bottle smells better, is easier & potentially cheaper than the gooey store stuff, and is far safer than methylated or isopropyl.

Alcohol-free folks: look into spritzing 3% hydrogen peroxide, which kills viruses faster than Clorox (watch your clothes, it can bleach too), proven essential oil blends, or even soapy wipes. Read labels for virus killing info.

Summary

THIS IS NOT IMAGINARY.

The death toll from Covid-19 is horrific — no matter how small the comparative R’s are.

It really IS a huge problem, still unfolding.

It’s appropriate to take it very seriously — and intelligently.

You’re not helpless. You really can protect yourself and your loved ones with that simple 3-part skill set:

1. 🌀 Dilute your air.
2. 😷 Protect your airway.
3. 👐 Wash wash wash.

Follow these guidelines for the best chance of staying well.

Reflect: “adequate protection” means masks AND 6 feet (“safer six”.) Both masks and “safer six.” Look around and see where that does or doesn’t happen.

Tip: Most eateries do takeout now, and parks are open for meeting in 🏕🏖🏜🏞.

We all have horrible choices ahead. Hope it helps to have a little coherent, practical, straightforward info. 👩‍⚕️👨‍🔬👩‍💻

Note on, & list of, sources

Sources are all primary data collection organizations within the federal government, which has access to all the original info streams:

– U.S. Census Bureau
– U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
– Bureau of Transportation Statistics (a dept. of U.S. DOT)
– The Joint Commission (of AHQS)
– DHHS-NPDB (National Practitioner Data Bank)
– HIV.gov
– CDC.gov
– EPA.gov

☆A statement along the lines of “prescription drug mismanagement results in >2M injuries and 100,000 deaths annually” is cut & pasted into many articles, some going back to 2005, despite the advances in monitoring and treatment in the past 15 years. Therefore, those figures are meaningless.

I wish politicians realized that made-up figures never improve the debate. They’re only bad for everyone’s blood pressure, at the very least.

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